Tuesday, July 14, 2015

Market Solutions vs. Regulatory Solutions

Solving Problems: Regulation v. Market Approaches

Problem
A common theme in today’s political discussion is that the Federal Government should “get out of the way” and “allow free markets to work their magic”. In 2015 there are many who would turn policy over to Adam Smith’s invisible hand. Alternately there are many who call out for more federal and state intervention in markets.  The level of discourse between these two positions often amounts to little more than name calling with free market advocates labeling opponents “socialists” and fans of regulation accusing their opponents of being cold and uncaring (among other things!).

Goal of Essay
The intent of this short essay is to offer a few approaches that bridge this gap. In a nutshell there are two messages to be delivered: 

  1. To the free market proponents we make the point that markets are only feasible when certain preconditions are present. To promote a market solution when major necessary “ingredients” are missing is futile. Nothing in this article should be construed as anti – market. Indeed by studying the conditions necessary for a market to exist we are promoting the use and existence of markets. There is no doubt that free markets –when they function properly - are a very effective, and efficient means of balancing price, production, and allocation of resources.

  1. Conversely – to the policy makers urging the government to right a particular wrong (perceived) we would offer the considerations as a regulatory response is crafted:
    • Is a market solution possible? (if so there may be no need for regulation)
    • Is self-regulation possible?
    • When we go forward with regulation we must carefully weigh and acknowledge the impacts created to achieve the "good".
Example Issues
In order to fix ideas we present some examples (with no intent to be exhaustive) of debates where market solutions are pitted against regulatory solutions. This essay – for the sake of illustrative ease – compares total market solutions to total regulatory solutions. But the reality is that every practical solution is on a spectrum between these endpoints. Indeed part of the art of policy making is finding a proper blend of these two streams of thought.

Example 1
The market will determine wages. Thus many espouse a position that says in the area of Executive compensation or Minimum wages  that government should keep their hands off. Regulatory advocates note that the market has not fixed these “problems” to date and that income disparity is increasing.  It is worth noting that in the case of both executive pay and minimum wage pay – there are many who would argue that there is no problem. So even agreeing that there is a policy issue on the table is difficult.

Example 2
The Cato institute recommends that we leave “questions regarding energy consumption, environmental standards, market structure, and technology to the market rather than government planners”.  Advocates of regulation point to environmental degradation and failure to develop plans for renewable energy sources as proof that the market has failed. The whole topic of climate change has added both urgency and confusion to these discussions.


Example 3
The Market for Healthcare and Healthcare insurance is in some ways ground zero for this debate. Free market proponents such as the Cato Institute promotes the ideas that: “consumers are better off when they, and not the government, are in charge of how their money is spent. This applies to health care, Social Security, and other areas where the government currently controls the dispersal of our tax dollars. In particular, Cato has been a longtime advocate of deregulating the health care industry, so that consumers can afford the health care insurance and treatment of their choice, and privatizing Social Security”. Those favoring regulation note that prior to the Affordable Care Act the uninsured population was growing and that many uninsured were accessing health care services on an emergency basis only.


Informed Market Solutions
To those coming forward with market solutions we note that they should be informed enough about the goods,services, and economics of the situation to to know whether a market can possible work!

It is crucial to know when a market can function properly and when it can’t. The conditions in which a free market will work have been understood for centuries. Indeed Adam Smith – the father of free markets – and capitalism understood them well.

The conditions for an effective free market are:
  1. That information about price and product are freely available.
  2. Consumers and producers always make rational decisions when purchasing or producing goods and services (i.e., buy at the optimal price and produce at optimal levels).
  3. Entry to and exit from the marketplace is easy (low “barriers to entry”).
  4. There are a large number of firms within a given industry, each selling a homogenous product.
  5. That there is a medium of exchange working within a framework of property laws.

A market may work with some deviation from these ideals – but the farther from the ideal – the more the invisible hand fails. We may challenge each of these assumptions and see how such distortions would adversely affect the effective free flow goods, services, and capital.

For example without knowledge about pricing and quality – available on both sides of a transaction – the market won’t effectively reflect supply and demand. If consumers are motivated by something other than price –e.g. – status or environmental concerns then a market may not function effectively.

Likewise – we can easily see that buyers and sellers may try to violate these conditions. Firms would love to drive out competition and gain power over markets. Likewise – consumers won’t always behave rationally. Thus even within a functioning market – there are pressures to prevent the market from functioning!

However even as we note these concerns about markets we also note that – when the conditions outlined above are present – the market is a highly desirable means of encouraging innovation and development while balancing capital, production, and prices.

Effective Regulatory Solutions

It may be so obvious as to escape notice that the market only works on those considerations, which are factored, into the market transaction. Factors that are external to the transaction – so called “externalities” are left out of market consideration.  The classic externality is pollution. We can imagine a factory that has the ability to dump waste freely into a waterway. Until the cost of that is forcibly considered in the price – the invisible hand won’t deal it with.

Because of externalities and because there are sometimes societal goals beyond markets – regulation is a necessary policy tool.

However it must be recognized that all regulation inherently involves coercion of some sort – either a restriction of rights, a redistribution of wealth, or a requirement to engage in activity not otherwise necessary. Regulation will inherently cause resistance and will require ongoing policing and effort to maintain and enforce. In some cases regulation will actually reduce overall economic effectiveness if it unduly restricts an efficient market place.

To have effective regulatory solutions these downside effects must be both understood and acknowledged. The importance of articulating the “why” of regulation is necessary to promote acceptance of regulations. Without acceptance – the imposition of regulation becomes a flashpoint and causes on going issues – some of which may actually counteract the desired impact of regulations. For example – in the case of minimum wage regulation – employers may decide to go “underground”.

Full exposition of the cost of regulation should always be able to answer the question – is the regulatory cure – with all its costs – better or worse than the problem we are facing.

Illustrative Discussion – Affordable Care Act       

As an illustration the ACA is not ideal. Arguably health insurance and health care services are among the most complicated goods and services that we might consider.  However – we have selected it for discussion because it is such a flashpoint for this debate.

A very basic distinction needs to be made right away. The ACA deals with the market for healthcare insurance. It has many impacts on the market for healthcare services – but those are separate and distinct from the example discussed here.

Since it ‘s inception the ACA has caused much heated debate. Unfortunately – for all the pyrotechnics – the debate has not done much to improve the law (detractors want to destroy the ACA and proponents are forced to defend). In such and attack – defend – mode of argument not much improvement is possible.

Comments to those advocating Market Solutions for healthcare insurance:
  1. Recognize that the ACA has consciously tried to create a marketplace with price (available on exchanges) and quality information (gold – silver – bronze policies) but that the complexity of the product is beyond many people’s ability to quantify. However while people may not make totally rationale decisions at the micro level – most can see that having insurance is better than NOT having insurance!
  2.  Acknowledge the social goal of ACA – either accept the problem and propose an alternate solution – or own the fact that you don’t intend to fix the problem.
  3. Be prepared to address the fact that prior to the ACA the health care system simply left many people out of the process.·      
Comments to those Supporting Regulations:
  1. Acknowledge intrusions and income redistribution.
  2. Seek to minimize such intrusion.
  3. Be open to market solutions

Conclusion
This essay breaks not even an inch of new ground. Rather it re-presents well known elements of market theory and regulation. The intent is to address a political climate where by opposing sides talk -at – or past -one another. I realize that to some extent the so-called dialogue is really posturing and there is not any intent to improve markets or regulation. But I also believe that many people have been immersed in posturing and a dysfunctional political climate so long that the basic points made here bear repeating.

So in a sense – I am seeking political “climate change”.  We will know that this has been successful when we can hear a market conservative voice the rationale for regulation – and a pro-regulation liberal articulate the value of economic markets and freedom.









Tuesday, June 10, 2014

Bringing a Libertarian Voice to the Table - Energy

As with the other Libertarian posts in this blog this one starts with the position as annunciated by the Libertarian party and then seeks to find approaches that are more positive in nature.

With regard to Energy the stated position of the Libertarian Party is contained in section 2.3 of their platform:

"2.3 Energy and Resources-
While energy is needed to fuel a modern society, government should not be subsidizing any particular for of energy. We oppose all government control of energy pricing, allocation, and production."

http://www.lp.org/platform

In this short position statement the Libertarians do recognize that energy is vital to society - but leave no role for government in pricing, allocation, and production.  They also argue against subsidy of any sort of energy. The presumption then is that the private sector can and will handle all these matters.

They do not rule out research or standard setting.

Renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, tidal, and hydroelectric receive explicit subsidy today and the Libertarian plank would remove those subsidies. Nuclear receives some form of subsidy in the form of limited liability - and this would be gone. Less clear are implicit subsidies for oil producers where military action and infrastructure support enable profitable drilling for oil and gas overseas. It seems likely that Libertarian's would support protection of their property - but it is unclear.

Historic -
Oil
Gas
Electric
Infrastructure
Highways
Rails

Alternatives
Price on carbon
New industry
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_subsidies

Wednesday, March 26, 2014

Carbon Capture - Coming to a Heat Source Near You

There may be people who truly doubt that CO2 contributes to climate change. I am not one of them.

I've recently become aware of an organization called Global Thermostat that has developed a technique for carbon dioxide capture that has the ability to make most power plants  - and indeed any sort of plant that produces waste heat with a temperature at or near 100 Centigrade - carbon negative.

It does this by exposing a propriety coated ceramic lattice to the atmosphere. The coating selectively binds CO2 which is trapped until it is released by steam generated by the waste heat (or any other source of heat).

The link to this group is:

http://globalthermostat.com

I have seen the demonstration machine and it is impressive. I am also certain that improvements will be made. The existence of this technology ought not lure anyone into a sense of false security. It will take a long long time to roll out this technology and it will come at a cost.

Furthermore - capturing the carbon is only half of the "cure". The other half of the solution is to store the carbon in some fashion. Some of the areas that are being explored are - pumping the collected gas into limestone formations, oil wells, or other geological formations. Another use of the CO2 might be in  enhancing the growth of crops or making fuels.

According to the founders,  Graciela Chichilnisky and Peter Eisneberger, even if the world makes major strides in slowing emissions the concentration of CO2 will continue to rise and will remain high well into the future. It is their contention that this technology can actually reduce the CO2 concentrations to levels more in line with those in early industrial times.

This is an idea worth following and supporting.


Tuesday, March 4, 2014

Using Brownfields and Power Line Right of Way for Solar Arrays

One of the challenges to developing Solar energy in the heavily populated northeast is finding land that is suitable for solar - and available. Typically there is little available undeveloped land. Clearly Solar can be integrated into existing lands and rooftops -but it is challenging for many reasons.

An alternative is to find land that is unusable for other purposes. In Connecticut four such sorts of land come to mind:

  • land under high tension power lines. This land has to be clear cut in order to avoid trees hitting the power lines
  • land along Metro North and Amtrack rail lines
  • land along highways
  • land on landfill and hazardous waste sites. 
The photo below was taken in Massachusetts:





The power lines and rail lines are attractive for several reasons:
  • there is a lot of it in Connecticut
  • it is relatively protected and secured by virtue of its current use.
  • it would be proximate to the major conduits of power
  • it would be proximate to a major user of power (the electrified portion of the railway)
A recent article suggests that 20% of the power in the US could derive from these sorts of areas. Please see this link:


Does anyone have information on a the land area that is covered by these three sorts of uses?

Bringing the Libertarian Voice to the Table - Gun Laws

If you haven't read Bringing the Libertarian Voice to the Table - Overview - please do so - it will take under 5 minutes.

The Libertarian position on guns may be found at the following link:

https://www.lp.org/issues/gun-laws

My synopsis is that Libertarians assert Gun Ownership is not something that ought to be regulated. The LP position harkens back to the colonial desire to have an empowered citizen base. They assert further that the less from the prohibition of liquor in the 20's and 30's is that prohibition doesn't work and indeed creates a world where honest people don't have guns and criminals do. To quote "Foolish politicians and police now seek to ban semi-automatic "assault rifles". They ignore the fact that only honest citizens will comply; criminals will still have them.Such a ban will only increase the criminals' ability to victimize the innocent."

Finally the LP states the guns are not the problem and that the responsibility is on the owner and user of the gun.

Commentary
The LP gives us a background of why the 2nd amendment was written and presents a case for no regulation (if I am overstating that please show me where they have an affirmative position).

This platform is lacking in specificity and doesn't address or recognize the issues that gun control advocates are wrestling to solve. Further more it overstates the efforts of gun control advocates - in no case that I know of are they talking about banning guns - rather they are seeking to ban or restrict access to certain types of firearms.

In the over view to this series of posts I recommend that Libertarians recognize the problem that is on the table. I would recommend that the LP adopt some problem statement.  I also recommend that specific suggestions be made to solve the problem which have the least impact on Liberty. My suggestion is:

Problem Statement
In all too many cases guns have been used in mass shootings. The lethality of these weapons has enabled killers to murder large numbers of people in short time. There are many cases in point but the most horrific cases are Columbine High School, Newtown Connecticut, the Virginia Tech shooting, and the Aurora Theater shooting. In response to each event advocates locally, at the state level, and in the federal government have recommended that certain types of weaponry be banned or restricted, that guns be registered, and that sales be recorded and tracked. 

Some solutions that the LP might endorse (suggestions):

  • While the LP desire to protect fundamental liberties it also recognizes that the lethality and effectiveness of weapons today exceeds that of the weapons at the time of the second amendment.  In recognition of this - we support the restrictions in place on machine guns and heavier munitions.
  • While guns are neither good nor evil - they are dangerous.Motor vehicles, aircraft, and watercraft are not inherently good nor evil - but they are dangerous to both operators and people in proximity. Licensing is required for them to make certain that the citizen is qualified and capable of operating the machine. The same is true for guns.
  • Registration of guns is not a violation of rights - and allows guns to be accounted for.
  • The LP does not feel that large clips and semi automatic weapons should be banned. I would recommend that they suggest alternatives in light of the crimes committed in the four shootings above that would address concerns of victims. (While I don't have anything yet to offer there may be people that do).
Summary
I feel strongly that in the case of gun laws - the LP platform is weak and verging on irrelevance because it misstates the position of gun advocates, presents only a defense of rights with no constructive proposals, and does not engage the legitimate goals of gun control advocates. I recommend that the LP formulate a more meaningful response that addresses the concern of gun owners and non gun owners alike by recognizing and stating the problem and making meaningful proposals.

I recognize that my own beliefs make it hard to suggest too many proposals - do any LP members have ideas. I'd love to put them in this post.



Monday, March 3, 2014

Bringing the Libertarian Voice to the Table - HEALTHCARE

If you have not read Bringing the Libertarian Voice to the Table - Overview - please do so before proceeding. It should take under 5 minutes.

The Libertarian platform on healthcare may be found at https://www.lp.org/issues/healthcare.

I summarize the platform contained in the link above:

  • Health used to be much more affordable before the government got involved in the 60s.
  • The government is now spending 50% of the healthcare dollars in the country.
  • Three suggestions:
    • Establish Medical Savings Accounts
    • Deregulate the healthcare industry
    • Remove barriers to safe affordable medicines.
The Libertarian Party wants to harness the power of the free market to help health insurance. This is however easier said than done.

Some additional points that would add to the positions that have been set out (and I encourage the reader to directly review the webpage sited in the link - it will only take a minute).

First the platform needs to recognize and acknowledge that many things BESIDES government intervention are at play and driving the costs upward. Some examples:
  • the technology of healthcare is increasing and improving dramatically.  So costs are up - but with reason.
  • the population is aging and living longer - both of which increase costs.
Second there are reasons for government involvement -
  • the number and percentage uninsured has gone up and the free market was not responding
  • the free market needs to operate in a logical framework - the current framework (pre ACA) did not address access or affordability issues. Indeed the incentive were perverse - i.e. encouraging companies to not insure sick people.
Evaluation of Specific Agenda Items:

Establish Medical Savings Accounts 
This is a concrete and valuable suggestion. I support it. However it won't help those who can't afford to save and won't - by itself help access.

Deregulate the Healthcare Industry
This is a very general and non actionable point. It repeals all government policies that increase health costs and decrease the availability of medical services. Most certainly there aren't polices that are self described as existing to decrease the availability of medical service. They may have that effect - but that is not their intent. No doubt though there are many provisions that increase cost. In virtually all cases these are in existence for a reason. If the LP wants to be effective it has to find these policies - explain why they exist - and then prove - assert that we 'd be better off without them. This is possible - but it is a lot of work! I encourage the LP to do this work.

Remove Barriers to safe affordable Medicine
The LP  indicates - using the example of Propranolol - that the Federal Drug Administration - by delaying its approval for 10 years is responsible for 100,000 deaths. Their conclusion is the bureaucratic roadblocks kills sick Americans.

I personally doubt the veracity of the figures - but - for this discussion - accept them. 

What is the fix for the FDA? To make the Propranadol example useful it needs to be explained. If there was literally no reason for the 10 year delay then perhaps criminal action is required. But without knowing what the delay was caused by - it is hard to know how to respond to this suggestion.

Perhaps the LP would disband the FDA - if so who performs their function? 

Perhaps the LP would reform the FDA - if so how?

In summary my evaluation of their three suggestions is that the first one is actionable as is. But the last two are nothing more than broad statements - portrayed as policies choices - that need much much more work before they are actionable.

Points I would make if I were a Libertarian:
  • We need to understand why healthcare has been so resistant to the free market solution. It is not solely because of the government. There are many reasons why the FAILURE of the free market in this arena made it necessary to have government intervention.
  • Viruses do not respect individual Liberties. Because of that there is a collective interest in having preventive care, vaccinations, etc for as many people as possible. A specific proposal on how to balance individual rights and societal needs for protection from communicable disease would be a great help
  • For the reason above - issues of subsidy and affordability come to the fore. If we want to guarantee some level of care - this problem has to be addressed. The ACA has its method - the individual mandate - if the LP can bring forward less restrictive but effective solutions they would be welcomed.
  • More to follow….
Comments and suggestions are most welcome







Wednesday, February 19, 2014

A Path to Energy Sustainability

It is tempting to say that we have secured our energy sustainability by the development of fracked oil and natural gas.

But a recent paper (March 13, 2013) by Mark Z. Jacobson et al makes the case that in fact natural gas - as it is now extracted - is worse in some ways than coal or oil. Some of the problems with natural gas are quite fixable - e.g. flaring and leaking methane at current levels. However the author contends that natural gas will be intrinsically climate warming. The authors place great significance on quick action to stop climate change because the Arctic ice is melting at such a high rate that it will be gone. The reduction of sea ice is itself a contributor to warming and the authors fear that should the ice disappear entirely it may not be possible to regenerate. Their strong caution is that natural gas in the short term a global warming fuel and that the short term is critical.

The authors then develop a pathway to powering all of New York State using only Wind, Water, Tidal, and Solar energy.  The authors have else where developed a similar plan for the US and the world and are in the process of doing the same exercise in every state. For this discussion, though, we will stay with the New York example for a few reasons:

  1. New York is a  large and important state that is not ideal for wind and solar - so it is a challenge!
  2. The state is on the cusp of deciding whether to permit hydraulic fracturing in the Marcellus shale - so the decision point is literally now!
  3. It is likely that the thought processes involved in adopting a renewable strategy are quite local in character - both geographically as well as politically. By looking at New York - the authors are able to capture that local dynamic.

The chart below shows how their goal is achieved through time. Their are two major themes in their approach:

  1. Energy efficiency to existing infrastructure using technologies now in hand and energy reductions stemming from the fact that an electric transportation sector is inherently more efficient. The net effect of these two efficiencies is to low the amount of power needed by 37%
  2. The lower section of the graphic shows the ramp up of Geothermal, Hydro , Wind, Solar, and Tidal power.This ramp up squeezes the amount of fossil fuel power needed to 0 by 2050. 
Oil, Coal, and Natural gas would still be needed - but not for combustion related power production. They would instead become the input to plastic, fertilizer, and other chemical processes. Mendeleev the Russian chemist and inventor of the periodic table made a famous remark that "that burning petroleum as a fuel would be akin to firing up a kitchen stove with bank notes." - he would pleased to see that we have finally stopped burning our money!






The plan may be summarized in this sentence from the abstract to the paper: "Under the plan, NYS’s 2030 all-purpose end-use power would be provided by 10% onshore wind (4020 5-MW turbines), 40% offshore wind (12,700 5-MW turbines), 10% concentrated solar (387 100-MW plants), 10% solar-PV plants (828 50-MW plants), 6% residential rooftop PV (􏰁5 million 5-kW systems), 12% commercial/ government rooftop PV (􏰁500,000 100-kW systems), 5% geothermal (36 100-MW plants), 0.5% wave (1910 0.75-MW devices), 1% tidal (2600 1-MW turbines), and 5.5% hydroelectric (6.6 1300-MW plants, of which 89% exist)."

Based on the cost analysis performed by the authors all the technologies employed in their plan should cost less per KWH in 2020 than installing new conventional combustion based power plants, vehicles, commercial buildings, and homes.

Discussion
It is recommended that everyone take a look at the article which is readily available on line. The article may be found at this link:   


http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/NewYorkWWSEnPolicy.pdf

Based on the authors calculations and projections the cost of renewables will be below fossil purls by 2020.  So the net energy cost burden is actually less going down this path. While we need to vet this statement it is compelling. I would argue that even if the cost were higher it ought not totally preclude  starting down this path - because of the fact that it would reduce the risk inherent in being a total consumer of energy with virtually no capacity to produce on ones own.

The comparison of cost between renewables and conventional (combustion) based generation is complicated by the fact that renewable prices are dropping per installed unit but some infrastructure (high efficiency transmission lines for example) are needed to deliver the power.

Table 3 provides a comparison a comparison of cost per KHW expected in the 2020 - 2030 timeframe.

The summary values (a weighted average of all technologies) is 5-7 cents per KWH vs. 12 to 15 cents for new conventional generation. There is however a need for infrastructure enhancement that reduces the favorable cost comparison somewhat - but it is projected that fuels will continue to increase while renewables will fall as technology improves.

It is important to note that the comparison is not assuming NEW technologies - but rather more efficient production of existing renewable technologies.

Discussion
The authors do not contemplate nuclear power - but I would recommend that it be part of the mix. New plants are vastly improved over older plants and can provide baseline power that would complement the variable nature of renewables.

The one obstacle to nuclear - in my mind - is the storage of spent fuel and radioactive materials. It would seem that no progress has been made in the long terms secure storage of this waste. I suggest that in lieu of the Yucca style storage that New York mandate some form of "Intermediate Acceptable Storage" which would eliminate the potential for water pollution, dirty bombs, and contamination in the event of plant failure. Specifically - I envision that liquids would be solidified, vitrified, and encased in either concrete or steel. This material would still be locally dangerous for someone exposed to it - but aside from being very close to it - would be inert if dropped, exposed to water,etc.

The authors have provided a very valuable service by demonstrating the practicality and possibility of a renewable energy system based in New York. However as we move towards this approach we need not make New York totally self contained. There is no reason for example that all the wind energy would need to come from New York - Canada has great resources that could supplement the New York mix.  Likewise if the center of the country becomes a wind power center - and proper lines were built it could add to the mix. Diversifying the mix would likely to add stability to the variable renewable  supplies.

Beginning these projects is important. There will be great learning that will come out starting the offshore wind project. Once it is started it can be scaled up relatively more easily. The hard part is starting - permitting, feasibility studies, basic infrastructure etc.

I'd be curious to hear comments pro and con on this proposal.